As America’s war with Iran continues and winter approaches, families already struggling to cover rising living costs could face another financial shock: utility bills to keep their homes warm. Americans are already feeling the pain at the pump. Filling a 14-gallon gas tank now costs about $62, compared with $44 a year ago, based on AAA’s national averages. For someone using a full tank each week, that would mean roughly $912 in additional annual fuel costs if the price gap persisted.

But the war’s cost burden is affecting more than just gasoline prices. The war in Iran is also pushing up the cost of heating our homes. The National Energy Assistance Directors Association projects that home energy costs will rise by 8.7% this winter—more than twice the latest annual inflation rate of 3.4%. Nearly 5 million households in the U.S., mostly in the Northeast, depend on heating oil to heat their homes.  

If families felt their bills had grown substantially higher over the past five years, they are not mistaken. Energy costs have already increased nearly 30% on average since 2021. On top of that, heating oil costs are projected to rise by more than 31% this winter, largely because of the sharp increase in heating oil prices driven by the war in Iran.

Working families and older individuals already struggling to make ends meet will be hit the hardest financially and will be forced to make life-or-death decisions. Cold homes can raise blood pressure and increase the risk of heart attacks and strokes, particularly among older adults.

The pressure extends beyond the heating bill. Because diesel powers the trucks that move goods across the country, higher oil prices hit every corner of the economy, making everything from groceries to clothing to household essentials more expensive. 

CNBC conducted a poll earlier this year and found that 63% of adults living in the U.S. are living paycheck-to-paycheck. For households already stretching every dollar, there may be no discretionary spending left to cut. 

But heating is essential. When a family cannot afford heat, their need to stay warm does not disappear. Too often, this leads families to make dangerous compromises. Some keep their homes uncomfortably cold, while others turn to dangerous coping strategies like running space heaters, flaring gas stoves, burning trash in the home, or sitting in running cars in enclosed spaces. These choices can expose families to serious harm inside the homes where they should feel safest.

In research my colleagues and I conducted during the first year of the pandemic, more than half of low-income households engaged in survival-focused coping strategies. While some families turn to dangerous ways to keep warm at home, other families unable to pay their bills often take on debt or sacrifice other necessities like seeking medical care or buying food. Most of these households use multiple strategies, revealing how financial hardship can force people to make several compromises at once.

These consequences can also stretch far beyond the winter season. Debts incurred during a season with high energy costs will have to be repaid later, with interest and fees leaving less money available for the next bill or family emergency. Significant debt may also result in utility disconnection once winter shut-off protections no longer apply.

Prolonged high fuel prices caused by the Iran war will only deepen this hardship.

Households have limited control over the heating systems they depend on, with renters generally unable to replace them and homeowners on tight budgets unable to afford upgrades. Meanwhile, a military conflict with Iran that more than three in four Americans believe is not worth the financial burden it’s created continues to hurt families who are absorbing the consequences at the pump, at the grocery store, and at home.

Families who cannot afford their energy bills could see relief through government programs like the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program if it were funded at higher levels and with expanded eligibility. Currently, the program only reaches a fraction of families in need, and the need is growing significantly. An increase in funding now would mean more families seeing relief before they have to go into debt or endure unsafe winter conditions. 

Longer term, reducing America’s dependence on oil could help families save on energy costs. The International Renewable Energy Agency found that 91% of utility-scale renewable power capacity commissioned worldwide in 2024 produced electricity more cheaply than the cheapest new fossil-fuel alternative. This means the development of new clean energy sources will provide greater financial benefits to families rather than polluting, expensive, and outdated sources of energy like oil and gas.

With no end to the war in sight and an approaching winter that will see a rise in energy demand and costs, policymakers need to move quickly to offer relief to families. Americans deserve future-focused solutions that include diversifying our energy sources so that no future wars or shocks to fossil fuel sources can impact the United States’ ability to afford necessities.