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Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Warner is running to get elected to a fourth and final term against Republican military veteran Bert Mizusawa, in a race that has remained under the national political radar.
The contest in the commonwealth has been overshadowed by fierce battles in several other states, where control of the U.S. Senate will likely be decided by the thinnest of margins.
The amount of money being spent on Senate races in places like Texas and Ohio — in the hundreds of millions of dollars — dwarfs the campaign spending in the Virginia race.
“The best measure of how competitive a Senate race is, is to look to the donations,” Stephen Farnsworth, professor emeritus of political science at Mary Washington University, said. “The political elites of both parties will focus on those races that are really, really close and the Virginia Senate race simply does not make that list.”
Farnsworth pointed to close races in states like Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, among others, where candidates for both parties are running neck-and-neck. That’s where political donors’ greatest interests are.
“That dynamic really demonstrates that Mark Warner is in a very favorable position for reelection this year,” Farnsworth said.
Still, Warner and Mizusawa are running in a significant statewide race. Democrats can’t afford to lose Senate seats they currently hold if they are going to flip the four seats needed to regain the majority in the upper chamber.
Warner has the traditional advantage of an incumbent, especially since he’s served in the Senate since winning his seat in 2009.
Before being elected to the Senate, he served as governor from 2002 to 2006. But Warner also lost his first Senate race, to Republican Sen. John Warner (no relation) in 1996.
Mizusawa is a political newcomer but has had an extensive career in the military and in public service.
He is a retired major general who served in the Army, commanded a task force in Afghanistan and later served as a senior advisor to the CIA director.
Mizusawa has supported President Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran and believes his military experience would be valued by the White House.
Warner, who is the vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, has been a sharp critic of the war and the president.
He has repeatedly argued that Trump has no vision for how to end the war, as gas and diesel prices remain high, along with the cost of groceries.
Warner has also been critical of the tariffs imposed by the president, while Mizusawa has defended imposing tariffs on some countries, though not as broadly as they’ve been implemented.
There have been no debates between the two candidates, and Mizusawa has criticized Warner for not facing off against him.
By contrast, there have been several debates in Senate battleground states, including in Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson held their fourth and final debate on Thursday.
Warner has not even mentioned his opponent in his campaign ads, which have focused largely on asking voters to “rehire” him, as he says he seeks to lower costs for everyday Americans and address issues related to artificial intelligence.
Mizusawa hasn’t raised the kind of money needed to run a major TV ad campaign.
The Virginia Public Access Project said Mizusawa had raised less than $400,000 through July 5, while Warner had more than $25 million.
“This speaks to the kind of money that is available in this race,” Farnsworth said. “The Republicans are spending their money outside of Virginia, for the most part, and the Mark Warner campaign feels like the ads to not need to be the traditional combative attack adds that you often use in a close contest.”
Warner has said this will be his last reelection campaign, if he wins.
Election Day is Nov. 3, but Virginians have been voting for several weeks. Early in-person voting began Sept. 18 and continues through Oct. 31.
As of Thursday, more than 560,000 mail-in and early in-person votes had been cast.
While some Virginia House races are expected to be extremely close, Farnsworth said the Senate race is not as competitive because Republicans didn’t nominate someone with broader name recognition.
“There are people who are known statewide who have won statewide in Virginia on the Republican side who could have gone up against Mark Warner,” he said.
But those potential candidates likely saw the unpopularity of President Trump, combined with Warner’s more than 20 years in elected office, and decided to take a pass this time around.
While Warner was easily reelected in 2020, he was nearly upset in 2014.
That year, polling indicated Warner had a strong lead going into the election, but former Republican National Committee Chair Ed Gillespie lost by only about 17,000 votes out of more than 2 million cast.
No major statewide polls on this year’s Senate race have been publicly released in recent months.
A Christopher Newport University poll of likely voters in the 2nd District, which includes Virginia Beach, had Warner leading Mizusawa by 51% to 37%. The poll, released this week, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.
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