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Republicans face strong political headwinds in their effort to hold their slim majority in the U.S. House, as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings fall to historic lows and polls suggest many voters are weary of high gas and grocery prices.
Nonpartisan assessments of the House race have trended toward Democrats in the run-up to Tuesday’s election.
The GOP currently has a 218-214 majority, so Democrats need only a net gain of four seats to return to power.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, who has been campaigning almost nonstop, vows that Republicans will defy history and retain their majority. But it is extremely rare for the party in power in the White House to gain seats during a midterm election.
President George W. Bush’s GOP managed to gain House seats in the 2002 election — the first time a Republican president had ever done that in a midterm. But that was also in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, and he had a strong approval rating.
By contrast, Trump’s approval rating has hovered just above 30%, and polls indicate most Americans oppose the war with Iran, which has been a driving force for high gas and diesel prices.
A majority of those polled have said they are more likely to vote for a Democrat in their congressional district than a Republican.
Recent polling for a “generic congressional ballot” indicates Democrats have at least an 8-point lead. But while all signs point to Democrats retaking the House, predicting exactly how many seats they will pick up is more complicated, especially in the wake of widespread congressional redistricting.
Democrats netted 40 seats in 2018 during Trump’s first midterm. But even with the current favorable political environment for Democrats, many political analysts caution against predicting the kind of waves that have happened in the past.
“On balance, these presidential midterms are going to be very painful for the president’s party,” Stephen Farnsworth, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Mary Washington, said. “You could be talking about 17, 18 seats flipping on average. I think the number this time is going to be smaller than that.”
Farnsworth said that is because both parties have become very effective in drawing down the number of competitive House districts across the country through redistricting. But even if Democrats only pick up seats in the high single-digits, he noted that would be enough to gain a majority.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report in early October predicted a net gain for Democrats of between 9 and 19 seats for Democrats. In this election, political leaders have indicated there are only about 20 battleground districts across the country, though there are still many tossup races.
One of the most closely watched races in the country is Virginia’s 1st Congressional District.
Political analysts have said that if Republican Rep. Rob Wittman loses the seat to Democrat Shannon Taylor, the Commonwealth’s Attorney for Henrico County, it’s likely to be a very good night for Democrats.
Wittman has held the Richmond-area seat for close to two decades.
Also getting attention is Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District race, between GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans and Democrat Elaine Luria.
House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have both campaigned for their respective candidates in the district, which is anchored by Virginia Beach.
Elsewhere, among the other races to watch is Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District. Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden faces Democrat Rebecca Cooke in a rematch.
The district has supported both Democratic and Republican candidates over the years. Members of both parties are also keeping an eye on congressional races in South Texas, where Republicans carried out redistricting.
Polling has indicated many Latino voters have moved toward Democratic candidates, which could undermine GOP efforts to create safe seats.
If Democrats regain control of the lower chamber, House Minority Leader Jeffries will be in line to become the next Speaker of the House. He could also make history by becoming the first Black House Speaker.
Democrats have said they plan to vigorously exercise congressional oversight if they return to power, initiating numerous investigations into the Trump administration amid allegations of corruption and questions about how the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) implemented massive federal job cuts.
Jeffries has stopped short of saying Democrats would seek to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over various issues involving the Pentagon, but he has said he believes the president needs to oust him after the midterms.
As for the Republican leadership, it’s unclear what will happen if the GOP loses its majority. Johnson has indicated he would seek to remain the party’s leader, but that could depend on how the election plays out.
If Republicans suffer larger losses than expected, the party may look at others, including current House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, who chairs the House Judiciary Committee.
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