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This year’s midterm elections once had the potential to be the most tumultuous ever for Virginia’s U.S. House races, due to an unprecedented Democratic plan that would have shaken up the state’s congressional districts.
In response to Republican redistricting efforts in several other states, Virginia Democrats redrew maps that would have led many voters to cast ballots in different districts, even if they never moved. But after voters approved a redistricting referendum, it was rejected by the Virginia Supreme Court.
The redistricting plan would have potentially given Democrats an edge in winning four additional seats, greatly adding to their current 6-5 majority in the state’s congressional delegation. But that didn’t happen, and voters this fall are casting ballots where they have in the past.
Still, Democrats believe they may be able to add to their majority due to the political headwinds Republicans across the country are facing: the unpopular war with Iran, high gas prices and concerns about the rising cost of living.
The 7th Congressional District has swung back and forth between Republican and Democratic representatives over the years.
Stephen Farnsworth, professor emeritus of political science at Mary Washington University, said it is primarily an “I-95 district” — including Prince William, Spotsylvania and Stafford counties, as well as Fredericksburg, and to the west, Orange and Culpeper counties.
“The dynamics in this district are really ones primarily of economic anxiety,” he said. “The questions of affordability are particularly intense in Northern Virginia.”
Democratic Rep. Eugene Vindman is seeking a second term against Republican Doug Ollivant. Libertarian Taner Lopez and several independent candidates are also on the ballot.
“The No. 1 issue is affordability and costs,” Vindman said. “It’s everything from grocery prices and diesel and fuel to utilities.”
Vindman said high costs are a shared concern of people he’s spoken to throughout the district, whether it’s residents who live near the Interstate 95 corridor or farmers in Orange County.
Vindman narrowly won in 2024 over Republican Derrick Anderson, after Abigail Spanberger decided to leave Congress and run for governor. Vindman has since built up a large campaign fund, raising more than $15 million. By comparison, Ollivant has raised close to $400,000.
Ollivant is a military veteran who has said he is focused on fiscal responsibility and believes Virginia families need affordable energy. As data centers expand, he stated on his campaign website that “this growth must happen with community buy-in and full coordination between residents, energy providers and policymakers.”
Ollivant recently revealed he has a form of blood cancer, known as acute myeloid leukemia. He has said he remains in a fight to beat cancer and “to beat Eugene Vindman in November.”
While the 7th District has a substantial number of Republican voters, other Virginia districts closer to D.C. have trended blue for many years. Farnsworth said in those districts, President Donald Trump looms large.
“The issues of President Trump’s presidency are going to have particular resonance,” he said, noting the impact of the administration’s federal job cuts across the region is still being felt.
That adds to a difficult political environment for Republican challengers trying to make their campaign messages stick with voters, he said.
Most of the voters in the 10th District reside in Loudoun, Prince William and Fauquier counties. While the district was held by Republicans for many years, that changed nearly a decade ago. Democratic Rep. Suhas Subramanyam was first elected in 2024, succeeding three-term Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton. He is seeking reelection against Republican Dave Beckwith.
Subramanyam has used his position on the House Oversight Committee to raise his profile. Beckwith is an Air Force Veteran who has said he will fight to keep taxes low and lower energy costs.
In the 11th District, Democratic Rep. James Walkinshaw is also seeking his second term, after being elected to succeed his late former boss, Rep. Gerry Connolly. He has sought to carry on Connolly’s legacy as a lawmaker who fights on behalf of federal workers. Walkinshaw is opposed by Republican Arthur Purves, who charges that Democrats have helped raise gas and energy costs by promoting green energy policies.
In the 8th District, Democratic Rep. Don Beyer is seeking his seventh term. Beyer has been a vocal opponent of the president’s plans to build a “triumphal arch” between the Lincoln Memorial and Arlington National Cemetery. He is opposed by Republican Tony Sabio, a Navy veteran who has also worked for the Secret Service and CIA.
While the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts aren’t in Northern Virginia, they are getting a lot of attention from both parties as well as political observers.
In the 2nd District, based in Virginia Beach, Rep. Jen Kiggans is widely considered one of the most vulnerable Republicans in this election cycle. She is facing Democrat Elaine Luria, a former congresswoman.
The 1st District is centered around the Richmond suburbs and stretches south to the Williamsburg area. The seat has been held by Republican Rep. Rob Wittman for nearly two decades. He is facing a strong challenge from Democrat Shannon Taylor, the Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney. If Taylor is able to defeat Wittman, political analysts have said it will probably signify Democrats nationwide will have a strong election night.
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