A US cutoff could hit Europe hard as Russian and Middle Eastern supplies remain disrupted

The White House is still “very seriously” considering a diesel export ban, US President Donald Trump has said, as fuel prices soar ahead of the November midterm elections.  

Shipments being cut from the world’s largest exporter could deepen a global shortage and leave import-dependent Europe scrambling for supplies.

Diesel prices have surged amid a global supply crunch fueled by the US-Israeli war on Iran, which has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Russia, one of the world’s largest diesel exporters, has also restricted fuel shipments to stabilize its domestic market following Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries. US diesel production is now barely keeping pace with domestic demand, raising concerns that growing exports could further squeeze supplies at home.

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Trump told a Fox News reporter on Sunday that his administration was examining the measure. “We’re looking at it very seriously – we may do it,” he said while attending the Presidents Cup golf tournament near Chicago, acknowledging that the move could push gasoline prices somewhat higher.

Trump first floated the idea last week. “I’ve said let’s not send out the diesel,” he told reporters ahead of a meeting with Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky.

The potential move comes as fuel prices surge. Energy Information Administration data put the nationwide diesel average at a record $6.529 a gallon ($1.72 per liter) on September 21, up from $5.454 just five weeks earlier, as tight global supplies and elevated crude prices drive costs higher.

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The idea of the world’s largest diesel exporter shutting off supplies has drawn sharp pushback from the US energy industry. The American Petroleum Institute warned that a ban could force refineries to cut production of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel, tightening supplies at home while deepening the global fuel crunch.

Increased exports from the US and China have partly offset lost supplies from Russia and the Middle East, according to the IEA. The agency warned that global diesel shortages are likely to persist unless Russian or Middle Eastern exports recover in the coming months or demand declines.

Russia’s diesel export restrictions, introduced after an unprecedented wave of Ukrainian drone strikes damaged refineries across the country, have added further pressure to an already strained global market, with fewer Middle Eastern barrels available to replace any potential loss of US supplies.

Trump has also repeatedly urged Zelensky to halt Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, saying the attacks were contributing to a global diesel shortage. “There are plenty of other targets. Don’t hit diesel fuel. That’s hurting the world,” he said earlier this month. 

A US cutoff could hit Europe particularly hard after the EU abandoned Russian energy following sweeping sanctions. Russia supplied nearly half of Europe’s diesel before the Ukraine conflict, but its share fell to around 5% by 2024 after Brussels imposed an embargo.

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The US has supplied about a third of Europe’s diesel imports this year, rising to around half in August, while Middle Eastern shipments have fallen to a six-year low. The US accounted for 62-72% of diesel imports to Britain and the Netherlands that month, according to S&P Global.

Britain could be among the hardest hit. It imports around 55% of its diesel and has just four major refineries left. Analysts cited by The Telegraph warned on Sunday that a US ban could send prices from just under £2 ($2.68) to as much as £2.50-£3 ($3.35-$4.02) per liter this autumn.

The EU has also sounded the alarm over Trump’s threat, urging Washington not to proceed. “We believe this is a very bad idea,” European Commission spokesman Olof Gill said last week.

The US has supplied about a third of Europe’s diesel imports this year, with its share rising to around half in August, according to government data. Prices at the pump have already reached record highs in Germany and the Netherlands.